In a world striving for greater sustainability, investment in coal – be it mining or power generation – should be much more selective, hence our new coal investment policy. Also in this issue: how to navigate markets as they swing between the impact of news on the fundamentals and adjustments in central bank liquidity; what to make of the trends in US inflation; and our assessment of the relations and economies of China and the US.
An explanation on why China wants a trade deal and how the US feels about this
Investors can look forward to greater transparency on sustainable finance as Europe takes the lead with an ambitious plan to help redirect capital flows, define sustainability and foster long-termism. This issue also covers the outlook for US earnings in 2019, incorporating sustainability in factor investing and an insight into who should call the shots in handling the next recession.
A “Great Instability” has followed the Great Financial Crisis and the risk of radical disruptive change looks high, with potentially profound implications for investors
Struggling for some time now to hit its inflation mark sustainably, the Federal Open Market Committee may move to adopt average inflation targeting, or even temporary price level targeting, in its upcoming strategy review. Such a shift should steepen the Treasury curve, lower real interest rates, and support a widening of long-forward TIPS breakevens.
Factor investing strategies can maximise portfolio returns while reducing risk. Adding ESG objectives to such strategies adds sustainable investing as a third dimension in addition to the return and the risk.
US companies’ earnings growth following the Q4 2018 sell-off could slow to the point of an ‘earnings recession’. But – outside energy and tech – the outlook may not be as bleak as it first appears.
With the structural direction of equities unclear, we prefer to be neutral in the medium to long term. We are structurally underweight in fixed income as we foresee gradually rising inflation and further monetary policy normalisation.
Tighter financial conditions, persistent political risk and slowing earnings growth are among the many factors set to inform fixed income choices, with careful security picking likely to matter more to performance than it did in 2018.
Fixed income quarterly outlook Q1 2019