Investment strategy

A pause that refreshes, but for how long

18 January 2019 -

Fixed income quarterly outlook Q1 2019

Key points

  • Tighter financial conditions and a weakening global backdrop have led the Federal Open Market Committee to signal a pause in the hiking cycle. We suspect other developed market central banks could put their own normalization plans on hold this year.
  • Continued stimulus from Chinese authorities, combined with signs of progress in the US-China trade dispute, also support our cautious optimism on the global growth outlook this year. Global growth is set to slow this year, but concerns over a 2019 recession in the US or other major economies are likely misplaced.
  • Still, market volatility is likely to remain elevated. Monetary policy is not providing the level of accommodation it was a year ago, the fiscal impulse is set to fade in the US, and corporate profit growth in most economies is slowing. A host of political risks will continue to weigh on risk sentiment as well.


On the same subject:
13 February 2019

What predictive information does the yield curve usefully yield? An assessment suggests it is a flawed mirror: investors seeking to understand where the economy is heading may be better off concentrating on the fundamentals.

30 January 2019

Tighter financial conditions, persistent political risk and slowing earnings growth are among the many factors set to inform fixed income choices, with careful security picking likely to matter more to performance than it did in 2018.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - PV bond best selection world EM 1440x300
27 July 2018

Emerging market debt has been the subject of much interest over the last few years, but recent volatility has created uncertainty about the asset class. We are convinced that besides offering an attractive return/risk ratio and the potential for high returns, current valuations constitute an attractive entry point.

Where there’s life, there’s real estate

The boom in life science research activities – genetics, biotechnology and medical and pharmaceutical innovation – means there is serious growth potential in the related real estate markets over the coming decade.