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BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM FED 1440x300
2 July 2018

Does the FOMC hope that with only moderate policy tightening, it can eventually succeed in returning US inflation to objective after an overshoot?  

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM US 1440x300
2 July 2018

The financial sector had been assumed to be one of the equity sectors that would outperform the broad S&P 500 index in 2018. Robust US economic growth following the passage of tax cuts would boost cyclical sectors and deregulation would enhance profits. But instead of market-beating returns, the sector’s total return up to 27 June was -4.3%, compared to a 3.0% gain for the rest of the index. What are the reasons for the disappointing figures? Might things turn around by the end of the year?

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM Barometer 1440x300
22 June 2018

Hopes were so high. At the start of the year, the ‘Goldilocks’ environment — characterised by above-trend global growth, contained inflation, and moderate volatility — looked set to continue, if not quite as strongly, in 2018.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM Transport Cargo 1440x300
21 June 2018

Taking a closer look at how the tariff cards may play out and which markets may suffer the most should things get nasty

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM Woman binocular outlook 1440x300
19 June 2018

What are the implications of recent political events in Italy, deepening trade tensions and the June FOMC meeting?

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM Woman binocular outlook 1440x300
5 June 2018

Cooling growth, inflation becoming ‘too hot’ - what is the outlook for Goldilocks?

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Reponsibility footprint 1440x300
5 June 2018

"If you can't re-use it, refuse it"

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - AC Fixed Income 1440x300
23 May 2018

With developed market inflation looking set to rise in the coming months, investors would do well to understand the implications for their portfolios and to consider how best both to hedge against inflation and achieve greater diversification

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM ISR 2 1440x300
23 May 2018

Valuing the stock of renewable and non-renewable resources – our natural capital – adds another perspective to investment decisions, for example, in terms of the potential risks that ecosystem impairments present to the outlook for industries ranging from agriculture to tourism. Mapping natural capital dependencies matters to investors, argues Robert Poujade.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM Woman binocular outlook 1440x300
23 May 2018

While oil has been the star performer among commodities so far this year, the balance of risks is shifting towards a re-alignment with other growth-sensitive assets. Indeed, the risk/reward profile for crude oil prices appears skewed to the downside.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Finance 2 1440x300
7 May 2018

The most recent run up in US Treasury yields (the 10-year benchmark bond yield peaked at 3.03% on 25 April 2018, though it had fallen back to 2.94% by 4 May), and the lacklustre performance of US equities, have renewed worries about the outlook for the stock market in face of higher financing costs. Many investors are worried that with price-to-earnings and price-to-sales multiples still at elevated levels, they could see multiple compression even if earnings growth remains good (the price-to-next-twelve month earnings ratio on S&P 500 is around 16.8x and price-to-sales around 2.1x, both well above long-run averages).

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Selection 1 1440x300
3 May 2018

The decision by the Trump administration to impose tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminium has unsettled politicians, commentators, investors and financial markets as it could be the opening salvo in what turns out to be full-blown trade war.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - AC equity 1440x300
3 May 2018

One of the metrics most often cited for measuring equity market valuations is the Shiller P/E, also known as the Cyclically-Adjusted Price/Earnings ratio (CAPE), defined as the price-earnings ratio based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - AC Fixed Income 1440x300
23 April 2018

Read about our asset class views and our economic and policy analysis

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - AC equity 1440x300
20 April 2018

It was of course inevitable (in retrospect) that the strong performance of the technology sector over the last year would suffer a reversal; it was just a question of when and what the trigger would be. In the end, there were two guns: tariff threats from the Trump administration, and rising concerns about taxes and regulation following the Cambridge Analytica revelations about the misuse of Facebook user data.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM FED 1440x300
20 April 2018

In considering what drives breakeven inflation (BEI) rates, mostly the gap between the yield on 10-year US Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and that on regular 10-year Treasury notes which acts as a measure of expected inflation, our approach involves the analysis of their components, namely (i) expected inflation (ii) inflation risk premiums (iii) liquidity premiums.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM European Equities 1440x300
18 April 2018

In March, Britain and the EU reached a milestone agreement  in their Brexit  negotiations, but the road to a sensible outcome remains complex and long, with ample opportunity for spats and setbacks along the way.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Flash info 1440x300
16 April 2018

Join our strategy and economics experts at the 25 April webcast

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Clients insurances 1440x300
29 March 2018

Trade war scenarios: tackling volatility and risk-off situations

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Climate Change 1440x300
28 March 2018

When the owner of a small Peruvian farm moved to sue a giant of the energy industry, no-one noticed, but, as the case progresses, it could have a major impact on legislation and how future lawsuits brought on the grounds of global warming are handled. It could also spur the investment needed to accelerate the technological advances to deal efficiently with the menace of climate change.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Pedagogie 1140x300
26 March 2018

A new era for US central banking began on 20-21 March as Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell presided over his first policymaking meeting.

Trump’s China Tariffs: Consequences of the America First Trade Agenda and Prospects for Retaliation
25 March 2018

Tariffs against China – likely products and economic impact on the US / The broader context – “America First” agenda raises risks of further trade tensions / Prospects for retaliation from China / Economic impact on China and other countries in the supply chain / Long-term risks stemming from on-shoring

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM Aqua 1440x300
22 March 2018

World Water Day on 22 March 2018 provides yet another timely reminder that water is humanity’s most precious resource – and that we must strive ceaselessly to ensure access to it for as many people as possible.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM BCE 1440x300
20 March 2018

The ECB’s very gradual edging toward an unwinding of its bond-buying programme continues at a slow pace. Here’s a short review of news on ECB policy so far this month:

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Finance 3 1440x300
9 March 2018

Our outlook for US inflation and growth has brightened considerably since the start of 2018, so we have lifted our targets for both US Treasury yields and TIPS-based breakeven inflation rates. Here, we review the factors we see as contributing to the rise in US inflation and we look at the potential monetary policy response from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM Real estate 1440x300
8 March 2018

As someone who began his career analysing data for the UK government back in the last century, I never expected there’d be a period in my working life when data or big data would be considered fashionable, or in the modern vernacular, ‘the new Black’. But if you are not into big data or using it in any shape or form in modern business, you run the risk of being considered as stuck in the dark ages.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM Factor investing 1440x300
5 March 2018

The first few months of 2018 have brought confirmation of continued synchronised above-trend global economic growth, lifting the long shadow cast by the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/09, dissipating the deflationary risks that have weighed on developed economies in recent years and putting central banks on the path towards interest-rate normalisation.

2 March 2018

Join Steven Friedman and Cedric Scholtes for the 15 March webcast

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM US 1440x300
28 February 2018

The US dollar is currently down by nearly 10% on a nominal, trade-weighted basis since the end of 2016, which has contributed to rising US company earnings. Earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates have also been boosted more recently by the anticipated benefits of US tax cuts.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - TM FED 1440x300
23 February 2018

The minutes of the January Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting reveal policymakers at the Federal Reserve becoming increasingly confident in the outlook for inflation in the US.

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Strategie Epargne 1400x300
23 February 2018

As for the outlook: how much inflation is too much?

BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Newsletters 1440x300
20 February 2018

The spark for the fire: why had investors been ‘shorting’ volatility? – taking a timely look at the mechanics of the recent volatility surge and drawing some balanced conclusions about the possible implications for asset prices. Five topics for Chairman Powell – considering questions that senate members might consider asking the chairman.