Global views & trends
High levels of local concentration suggest employers have market power
If you can, help others; if you cannot do that, at least do not harm them. - Dalai Lama Summary The Sino-US trade tension risks escalating to a new cold war, which could cost not only China and the US, but also the world economy, dearly. Collateral damage to the global system could be another round of currency war in the short term with new volatility dynamics coming from China. If the end of the last Cold War fostered global economic integration, the beginning of the next one - between China and the US - will likely produce fragmentation, with long-term consequences on even technological innovation and climate change.
Equity markets' usual year-end Santa Claus rally might get an additional boost
The primary themes impacting the yields of US Treasuries and the pricing of future levels of inflation (via breakeven inflation rates (BEIs)) have changed little in the last few months. They continue to generate a range-trading environment for US Treasury bonds and TIPS.
Growth dynamics and demographics add to the arguments in favour
At the 13 June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 1.75-2.00%, marking the seventh increase in US interest rates of the current cycle.
In China, policy is driving the push to cleaner energy, but the setup in India makes the transition tougher
Inclusion of mainland-listed stocks marks milestone in the opening of China’s financial markets
How did the largest drop in nearly two years start and when will it end?
As the UK prepares to leave the EU, the lack of clarity on how the split-up will work confounds the outlook for both the British economy and UK property stocks.
On 9 April, Haruhiko Kuroda began his second term as governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), facing a familiar challenge.
A few surprises, but wait-and-see dominates for now
With our investment outlook for 2018 and the prospects for India’s life insurance business
2017 was a blockbuster year for Asian equities, underpinned by solid global growth and Chinese demand. A repeat performance looks unlikely in 2018. However, we do expect sustained returns, driven by a potent cocktail of robust fundamentals, resurgent company earnings and further multiple expansion. Although we cannot ignore market concerns over risks such as a sharp China slowdown and further rises in US interest rates, we believe these drivers, coupled with Asia’s generally high economic growth and attractive equity valuations, should result in further upside for long-term investors.
Inside: the equity and bond outlook, consumption in China and more
Also in the latest edition: opportunities in the flexi-staffing industry
Also in this edition: the potential of the Indian equity market and Chinese innovation
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Conservatives fail to win enhanced majority for Brexit talks
In the coming months many Russian companies are expected to pay generous dividends to their shareholders, providing them with relatively high single and even double-digit dividend yields for 2016. The underlying factors could render the dividend yield of the Russian equity market the highest among large emerging markets.
A classic case of ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’
Inside: US policies and Asian bonds and equities; India’s digital economy; China in transition
Q1 issue also looks at India’s demonetisation drive and the digital economy
A tax windfall, lighter-touch regulation, potential for wage increases, US dollar weakness, the risk of protectionism, government shutdown…