Our Insights – April 2019
In this edition, read why ‘globotics’, the next stage of globalisation, threatens to overwhelm our capacity to adapt. We also explain what the energy transition means for equity valuations and present our asset allocation for the second quarter.
|Richard Baldwin, one of the world’s leading globalisation experts, argues that the explosive pace of developments in robotisation and telemigration threatens to overpower our ability to adjust.
|A fragile goldilocks environment|
|All assets have rallied recently, partly on the back of central bank dovishness. But, late in the economic cycle and with growth in Europe and China structurally challenged, downside risks remain. Goldilocks is on edge.
|Energy transition: an infographic|
|Investors take note! Marginal changes underway in the global energy market potentially put large swathes of equity value at risk over the next few years. This is because what matters for valuations is which energy sources dominate the growth in demand, not which sources dominate the overall level of demand.
|MSCI to add more A shares: a blessing for foreign investors|
|The weight of Chinese A shares in MSCI’s global indices is set to rise, creating a major long-term opportunity for foreign investors. The move comes amid further reform in China and steps to open up its capital markets.
Our Insights appears every quarter and offers investors views on future economic trends and the outlook, and possible implications for investing. Contact your local representative for more information.
Asset allocation, November 2019
The transition to a global sustainable finance system is gaining pace. Speaking at the first PRI Sustainable Finance Policy Conference in September, BNP Paribas Asset Management CEO Frédéric Janbon explained that while sustainable finance is moving up the agenda for policymakers, regulators and investors, much work remains to be done. We set out the key points in this edition of The Intelligence Report.
These days, extending the phrase “steady as she goes” – that reassuring call from the helm confirming the current course to the next safe harbour – to other uses might be a stretch. After all, it seems increasingly to be disruption rather than continuity that marks the pace of life. And so it is in investing. At the macroeconomic level, there is a pressing need to assign the current ‘single-use product’ model to the scrapheap and adopt the circularity of the re-use, repair and recycle approach, as we explain in our first article. At a more personal level, healthcare faces a reassessment on the back of possible policy changes, while the drivers of costs, such as ageing and life style changes, persist. What this means for investors is the topic of our second article. Rounding off this edition, our third article underscores the point that disruption is a trend that might be most obvious in IT, but it is felt far beyond that sector.
Here’s reflation, well, for now
Recent geopolitical news has caused financial markets to trade in a reflationary fashion, shrugging off weak data and concern over structural Sino-US tensions, even if the economic slowdown may evoke memories of Q4 2018. Are the similarities actually there?, we ask in this issue of The Intelligence Report .
A quarterly by BNP Paribas Asset Management