Global views and trends

The energy transition – resetting investors’ expectations for equity value

19 September 2019 -

Opportunities and risk for investors in the energy transition are driven by increased energy demand,  a changing energy mix and the need for energy-efficient solutions to address climate change.  

With 36% of demand for crude oil today coming from light-duty vehicles and other vehicle categories susceptible to electrification, and a further 5% from power generation, the oil industry has never before in its history faced the kind of threat that renewable electricity in tandem with electric vehicles poses to its business model: this is a competing energy source that:

  1. has a short-run marginal cost of zero
  2. is much cleaner environmentally
  3. is much easier to transport
  4. could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand if it had the necessary scale.

As this infographic illustrates, if we were building out the global energy system from scratch today, the economics alone would dictate that at a minimum, the road-transportation infrastructure would be built up around electric vehicles powered by wind and solar-generated electricity.

In our view [1], the economics of oil for petrol and diesel vehicles versus wind and solar-powered electric vehicles are now in relentless and irreversible decline, with far-reaching implications for policymakers, the oil majors and investors.


[1]  Click here to read our research paper on the topic: Wells, Wires, and Wheels – EROCI and the Tough Road Ahead for Oil

This article appeared in The Intelligence Report – 18 September 2019

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On the same subject:
The circular economy: a change for the better as well as an investment opportunity
15 October 2019

Investing in businesses that are active in (the transition towards) the circular economy can pay off in the long term. Sébastien Soleille, head of the energy transition at BNP Paribas, and Bertrand Alfandari, ETF & Index Solutions, BNP Paribas Asset Management, explain in this edition of The Intelligence Report.

2 October 2019

“We need to accelerate the rate of change... move to radical change, and fundamentally revisit the way we think about risks and opportunities” - “PRI in Person” conference attendee

19 September 2019

Sustainability is becoming mainstream and influencing how companies see themselves, and even leading CEOs have begun to encourage greater reflection on the role and obligations of the organisations they run [1].

Innovation. It’s not just technology

Investors who associate innovation solely with the technology sector may do well to take a broader view. A promising strategy should interplay the latest developments at solid players across diverse sectors, and capture performance that is sustainable – both in financial and ESG[1] terms.