The sustainable investor for a changing world
New York lower Manhattan shutterstock 653496280
  • Home
  • Weekly investment update – Do earnings matter?

Weekly investment update – Do earnings matter?

Blog

Daniel MORRIS
 

-

As second-quarter reporting kicks off, market expectations are high. Corporate earnings are forecast to have grown by more than 50% from the same quarter a year ago when most of the US was only slowly coming out of lockdown. Even if the actual results fall short of the puffed-up expectations, that high growth rate should be a key support for the equity market.

Investors will be paying particular attention to what companies say about the outlook.

Beginning last year, many companies stopped providing forward guidance, that is, their view on whether sales and profits would be higher or lower than the last time they had spoken with analysts and investors. At the time, the outlook was so uncertain; CEOs and CFOs felt they simply had no basis on which to make a forecast.

Speaking out again

Already in this year’s first-quarter earnings season, the volume of guidance had reverted to where it had been pre-pandemic. As it happened, those companies that did provide an outlook tended to be more optimistic. This should not have been surprising given that a company with a positive story to tell is more inclined to do so than a company with a poor outlook. The share of positive guidance averaged just under 25% before the lockdowns, but has more than doubled after (see Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1 - Number of companies providing guidance

Interest rate sensitivity – value vs. growth stocks

With earnings growth so strong, share prices have become much more sensitive to changes in interest rates, and particularly to the drivers of the change. The impact on equities of a move in the nominal 10-year Treasury yield usually depends on whether it stems from a change in inflation expectations or in real interest rates.

Inflation expectations have been falling since mid-May as the markets began to appreciate that short-term price increases would not necessarily translate into medium-term inflation. That view was reinforced by last month’s more-hawkish-than-expected Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

This decline has had a significant impact on the performance of value stocks, which have been highly correlated with inflation expectations (see Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2 - Russell Growth and Value indices and change in 10-year US rates

What is happening with real yields?

Growth stocks, by contrast, have been driven more by changes in real yields, although the correlation is negative. Real yields peaked last March and as they declined, growth stocks have done well.

Some fixed income investors have found the decline in real yields puzzling. Real yields depend on, among other things, the future level of policy rates and economic growth rate expectations.

After the latest FOMC meeting, near-term expectations for policy rates rose, but medium-term forecasts fell. This could reflect the view that inflation will be lower in the future and so policy rates do not need to be so high; in fact, 10-year inflation expectations have changed very little.

An alternative explanation is that the expected level of growth has fallen. While this is possible, it is difficult to find much recent economic data which would support a significant change in the view on the economic outlook.

And the Fed’s view on inflation?

This uncertainty makes the meeting of the policy-setting FOMC on 27-28 July particularly interesting. We do not expect any surprises, but Chair Jay Powell’s words will be scrutinised to determine if the Federal Reserve is changing its view on inflation and the timing of any tapering of its asset purchases.

The rise in coronavirus infections due to the Delta variant could lead the Fed to emphasise that the outlook is less now positive than it was a month ago.

Powell will likely reiterate the central bank’s position that inflationary pressures are transitory, even if they have been stronger than expected. Most survey and market-based measures of inflation expectations show that investors accept this analysis. One can even see in some market measures a return to the low-flation outlook we had prior to the pandemic.

Whether June’s FOMC meeting really pointed to a more hawkish Fed, with its forecast of future policy rates (the ‘dot plot’) indicating rate rise,s is debatable. Powell has subsequently de-emphasised the importance of the forecasts. This month’s news conference will be another opportunity for him to clarify the Fed’s view.

Given that there is still a substantial shortfall in jobs compared to pre-pandemic trend levels, ‘substantial further progress’ is still needed before the Fed can be expected to begin to reduce its billion-dollar asset purchases.

The rise of the Delta variant could slow progress on employment further if workers become more reluctant to take face-to-face consumer services roles where much of the shortfall lies. If this happens, it will delay yet further the time when the Fed will move from talking about tapering to initiating it.


Any views expressed here are those of the author as of the date of publication, are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may take different investment decisions for different clients. This document does not constitute investment advice.

The value of investments and the income they generate may go down as well as up and it is possible that investors will not recover their initial outlay. Past performance is no guarantee for future returns.

Investing in emerging markets, or specialised or restricted sectors is likely to be subject to a higher-than-average volatility due to a high degree of concentration, greater uncertainty because less information is available, there is less liquidity or due to greater sensitivity to changes in market conditions (social, political and economic conditions).

Some emerging markets offer less security than the majority of international developed markets. For this reason, services for portfolio transactions, liquidation and conservation on behalf of funds invested in emerging markets may carry greater risk.

On the same subject:

© 2021 BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT USA, Inc., All rights reserved.
BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT USA, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.
These documents and video clips may also include information obtained from affiliated investment management companies within BNP Paribas Asset Management, the brand name of the BNP Paribas group’s asset management services. The documents and video clips are produced for informational purposes only and do not constitute: 1. an offer to buy nor a solicitation to sell, nor shall they form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever or 2. investment advice. Any opinions included in these documents and video clips constitute the judgment of the author/ presenter at the time specified and may be subject to change without notice.